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StanChart projects Vietnam’s GDP growth at 6.9% until 2021

10/1/2019 10:00:43 AM



Speakers at the Panel Discussion at the annual Global Research Briefing seminar hosted by Standard Chartered Bank Vietnam on September 23 in HCMC - PHOTO: STANDARD CHARTERED BANK VIETNAM

HCMC – Vietnam is believed to be an ASEAN outperformer this year, with GDP growth projected at 6.9%. This rate is expected to sustain through 2021. The recent broadbased 25 basis-point rate cut by the State Bank of Vietnam is seen as pre-emptive signaling, given the country’s dependence on global demand to support its export-driven growth.

The forecast was released at the annual Global Research Briefing seminar hosted by Standard Chartered Bank Vietnam on September 23 in HCMC, which gathered 150 representatives of local and foreign firms to join discussions on trade tensions and the likely implications for rates and foreign exchange markets until 2020, as well as cutting-edge insights into the latest technology trends.

Addressing the event, Edward Lee, chief economist, ASEAN and South Asia, was bullish about Vietnam’s outlook in giving the forecast, adding that the near-term impact on credit growth and borrowing costs is likely to be minimal.

In addition, domestic liquidity is flush and overnight borrowing costs are close to yearly lows. The economist did not expect further monetary policy action from the central bank for the rest of the year.

He also shared his view on the latest global outlook, forecasting a moderate global growth of 3.4% this year and pointing out that the three factors that will determine headwinds or tailwinds for global growth are U.S. trade tensions with major partners, the policy outlook for major central banks and oil prices. All three factors affect market sentiment and economic activities, both for investment and consumption.

Meanwhile, Divya Devesh, head of ASEAN and South Asia Foreign Exchange Research, discussed the outlook for foreign exchange and interest rate markets globally.

In particular, trade tensions are dominating market attention, and lower inflation outcomes are enabling major central banks to respond. The aggressive monetary policy easing by global central banks is likely to keep interest rates at subdued levels.

Besides this, Devesh also focused on the impact of trade wars on the Asian foreign exchange market, with specific focus on the Chinese yuan and Vietnamese dong.

Alongside the economic briefings, Maxime de Guillebon, a member of Standard Chartered Ventures, delivered a presentation, themed “Disruptive technologies: Is the bet paying off? A closer look at the Blockchain use case,” sharing the bank’s latest insights on technological trends.

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